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NEW YORK: A bounce in US stocks that has defied a barrage of major earnings disappointments faces a key test this week, when the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next meeting could shed light on how long it will stick to the aggressive monetary policies that have crippled asset prices in 2022.
Betting on a less hawkish Fed has been a dangerous undertaking this year.
Stocks have repeatedly rebounded from lows on expectations of a so-called Fed pivot, only to be crushed anew by fresh evidence of persistent inflation or a central bank bent on maintaining its pace of rate increases.
Pockets of softness in the US economy have fuelled recent hopes of a tempering of rate hikes, along with signs that some of the world’s central banks may be nearing the end of their rate hiking cycles.
Meanwhile, cash-heavy investors afraid of missing out on a sustained rally have contributed to the bullish move, market participants said.
“The market is starting to believe that there is an endgame in sight for this huge global tightening cycle,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.
The S&P 500 was on pace to end the week with a gain of over 3%, as investors shrugged off brutal earnings reports from companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta Platforms.,
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The benchmark index is up over 8% from its most recent low, a move that has been accompanied by a sharp rally in US Treasuries and a weakening of the dollar, reversing trends that have prevailed for most of the year.
A smaller than expected rate increase by the Bank of Canada added to hopes of a peak in global central bank hawkishness, as did comments from a Bank of Mexico board member cautioning against increasing monetary policy to excessively restrictive levels.
While investors have broadly factored in a 75 basis point rate hike at the end of the Fed’s two-day meeting, many will be looking for hints of future policy moves in chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, as his comments have swayed asset prices this year.
For example, stocks rallied ahead of the Fed’s conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in August, only for the market to decline anew after Powell warned about economic fallout from the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation.
“If his tone is as terse and as hawkish as it was in August at Jackson Hole, that would certainly change the narrative rather rapidly,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.
This week will also test whether stocks can continue to weather disappointing earnings news.
More than 150 S&P 500 companies are due to report quarterly results this week, including Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips and Qualcomm.,
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